OVERVIEW

Understanding the complex web of climate science, including the historical roots of climate change, the chemistry of greenhouse gases, the sources of emissions, and the critical role of both natural and anthropogenic carbon sinks, reveals the imperative for immediate action. A resounding theme emerges—time, not merely as a dimension but as the linchpin in our battle against climate change. Prioritising low-tech solutions in the present over banking on futuristic interventions becomes crucial to shape a sustainable future.

12min read

WHAT IS THIS

The roots of climate science trace back to the 19th century when scientists predicted that increasing levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide would warm our planet. Over the years, the Earth has indeed warmed by about one degree Celsius due to rising greenhouse gas levels. This one-degree rise might not seem significant, but during the last Ice Age, the Earth was only three degrees colder than normal, covering the planet in ice caps. We are now one degree warmer than the usual temperature and continuing to warm in the future, impacting our landscapes, water resources, and food systems.

Chemistry: Greenhouse Gases in our Atmosphere

Various gases contribute to climate change, such as CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases. These gases result from different factors related to energy, land use in agriculture, and specific material use like cement and refrigerants:

• 62% Fossil Fuels: Burning coal, oil, and natural gas releases CO2 into the atmosphere.

• 3% Cement: The process of making cement and concrete emits CO2 into the atmosphere.

• 11% Deforestation: Burning trees releases CO2, contributing as much to climate change as the entire United States.

• 16% Methane: Natural gas industry leaks and biological sources from agriculture, especially livestock.

• 5% Agriculture (Nitrous Oxide): Fertiliser use and manure release nitrous oxide into the atmosphere.

• 2% Fluorinated Gases: Used in refrigerants and other industrial applications.

It's important to note that deforestation, accounting for 11% of climate change, is as significant as the entire carbon footprint of the United States. Maintaining a balanced perspective is crucial when assessing the broader picture of climate change

Time : Understanding the Lifespan of Greenhouse Gas

When we talk about the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, it's crucial to consider their longevity in the atmosphere. Methane, for instance, contributes to about 16% of the total warming over the next 100 years. However, over the next 20 years, its significance almost doubles. Despite being a potent greenhouse gas, methane doesn't stick around in the atmosphere for long—it warms the planet intensely upfront and then dissipates quickly.

Looking into the distant future, around 100 to 300 years from now, carbon dioxide takes centre stage because it persists longer in the atmosphere. This nuance emphasises the need to analyse each gas differently, considering not only their sources but also how they interact with the atmosphere and influence the planet's future.

The Sources : Activities Contributing to Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Understanding the economic sectors responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is equally important. The primary culprits behind 90% of climate change are five activities: electricity production, food and agriculture, industry, transportation, and buildings:

• 25% Electricity Production: This involves burning fossil fuels, particularly coal and natural gas, to generate electricity.

• 24% Food, Agriculture, and Land Use: Methane emissions from animals, rice fields, fertiliser use, and manure contribute significantly.

• 21% Industry: The process of making cement, steel, plastic, and managing global waste plays a substantial role.

• 14% Transportation: Cars, trucks, boats, trains, airplanes—all modes of transportation contribute to emissions.

• 6% Building Heat/Cool Efficiency: This category includes the energy used by furnaces, hot water heaters, boilers, and the inefficiencies of air conditioners.

• 10% Fugitive Emissions: The final 10% is associated with activities like processing and refining oil, as well as leaks of natural gas, known as fugitive emissions and gas flaring.

Understanding these sectors helps us identify where actions are needed most to address and mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on our planet.

Carbon Sinks : Storing Greenhouse Gases (carbon)

In addition to understanding the chemistry and sources of greenhouse gases, it's crucial to grasp what influences their future levels in the atmosphere because these levels ultimately determine the extent of warming.

Controlling Future Levels

Imagine the atmosphere filled with greenhouse gases, a result of human activities like burning coal, deforestation, and agricultural practices. The next part of the equation involves what we call "sinks"—mechanisms that take these gases back out of the atmosphere.

Natural Sinks

Natural background sinks exist on Earth, primarily in forests and inner oceans, usually maintaining a chemical equilibrium. They emit and absorb greenhouse gases, balancing each other out. However, for carbon dioxide, there's currently a unique situation. Rising CO2 levels in the air are causing a fertilisation effect, prompting trees and oceans to absorb more CO2 than usual. This effect is crucial and removes about half of the carbon dioxide emissions we release annually, mitigating the impact of global warming.

Anthropogenic Sinks

Beyond natural sinks, humans can potentially enhance these processes through what we call anthropogenic sinks—human-caused mechanisms. This includes actions like planting trees, cultivating kelp in oceans, or using machines to extract and store CO2 underground. These efforts, known as carbon removal projects, are essential, but we need to ask critical questions about their scalability and effectiveness. Many are currently small, and before relying heavily on them, we must ensure their viability and impact.

Permanence & Verification

Considering the permanence of carbon removal is vital. If we store carbon dioxide in a tree and the tree is cut down or burned in a forest fire, the stored carbon is released back into the atmosphere, undoing the carbon removal project. Ensuring that carbon is securely locked away for the long term is crucial.

Verification is another key aspect. We need to accurately measure and account for the amount of carbon removed. The challenge lies in making the bookkeeping and accounting for these removal efforts transparent and reliable, as it can sometimes be complex and challenging.

In summary, understanding and managing carbon sinks, both natural and human-induced, are critical elements in addressing the complex issue of climate change and ensuring a sustainable future for our planet.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT

Halting climate change requires a united effort from governments, businesses, investors, philanthropists, and more. Collaboration is key to mobilising effective, science-backed solutions that can truly make a difference.

Understanding the origins of different greenhouse gases, their unique contributions to the problem, and implementing solutions across time and space are crucial aspects of this endeavour.

The Urgency of Action

To curb climate change, it's essential to act swiftly and decisively. By focusing on the most effective solutions, we can collectively address the root causes of climate change and work towards a sustainable future. Governments and businesses must align their efforts, investors should support climate-friendly initiatives, and philanthropists can play a pivotal role in funding impactful project.

Mobilising Science-Backed Solutions

Organisations like Project Drawdown provide a science-based strategy that guides stakeholders on prioritising climate actions for maximum impact. In essence, collaboration and informed action are the linchpins of our ability to confront and mitigate the challenges posed by climate change.

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN

Climate Levers for a Sustainable Future

Addressing climate change involves pulling various levers—examining pollution sources, understanding natural sinks, and exploring human-induced carbon removal. Each lever operates differently, and finding the right balance is crucial.

Cutting Sources: Job Number One

The primary focus is on cutting pollution sources. This is the most critical and effective strategy to solve the problem. Immediate and substantial reductions in emissions are essential, especially in the 2020s and early 2030s. A goal of cutting emissions by 40 to 50% within the next 10 to 15 years aligns with the Paris Accords, aiming to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

Natural Sinks and Carbon Removal

Natural sinks, like forests and oceans, play a crucial role, but their effectiveness might decline as CO2 levels stabilise. Carbon removal, though promising, is currently limited and will take time to scale up. Project Drawdown envisages we will be reaching gigaton-scale carbon removal in the next decade or two, with significant growth by mid-century to offset remaining emissions

Time Value of Carbon

Understanding the time value of carbon is crucial. Early actions, especially in the 2020s, have a disproportionately significant impact. The cumulative effect of emissions cuts during this time frame pays off handsomely, preventing substantial amounts of carbon from entering the atmosphere. About three-quarters of the work needed to halt climate change is achieved through emissions cuts in the 2020s and early 2030s. This highlights the importance of prioritising low-tech solutions available now over waiting for high-tech solutions in the future.

Reflecting on the intricate web of climate science, emissions sources, sinks, and the imperative for action, a common thread emerges—time. Time is not just a dimension; it's the linchpin in our battle against climate change. The urgency to act swiftly, guided by science-backed solutions, is paramount. Our collective responsibility extends across governments, businesses, investors, and philanthropists, each playing a pivotal role in mobilising efforts for a sustainable future.

Understanding the significance of early actions, especially in the 2020s, is akin to investing in the time value of carbon. Just as financial decisions made early in life accumulate for a prosperous retirement, our actions today reverberate through the years, preventing substantial carbon emissions and steering us toward a net-zero future.

While acknowledging the promise of carbon removal and the crucial role of various levers, we must not underestimate the power of immediate, substantial emissions cuts. Time is on our side if we act decisively now. The urgency is not just a call to action; it's a plea to prioritise low-tech solutions available today over the allure of future high-tech interventions.

In closing, the narrative of climate change is complex, but our path forward is clear—unite, act, and value the precious time we have. With each passing moment, we shape a resilient and sustainable future for our planet. The question is not just what we can do; it's how soon we can do it. Time is of the essence, and together, we can turn the tide for a better tomorrow.

Researched and written by Rebecca Agent with editorial support from Grammarly (English AUS) and ChatGPT

WORKS CITED

Note: this article is a brief summary of climate science and levers authored Project Drawdown “the world’s leading resource for climate solutions” See https://drawdown.org/ for science-based climate solutions and strategies to “help the world stop climate change—as quickly, safely, and equitably as possible.”

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A side note worth watching, the power of leveraging solutions & expertise that already exist today (start at 10m49s) …

[10:49] “So I'm a climate activist and a lifelong environmentalist, the kind that would have chained myself to a tree if I needed to, of that flavor. I grew up and got a job, became an energy lawyer and then an energy entrepreneur, and entrepreneurship took me out into the field for product deployments, and I ended up living on drill rigs. And I had a complete epiphany, it was a total mind shift, bias out the door. Because I got to know many individuals in the oil and gas workforce. And y'all that grit. I mean, it is incredible grit. Those people are there for it. But I also got to know the amazing technological innovations of that industry. And what I've come to believe is those are assets. The workforce, the technologies, they are assets that we can leverage now to solve climate change. So what I do for my job is I recruit oil and gas veterans to the cause of geothermal. If we want to turn the ship, we recruit the sailors. And it's working.” Jamie C. Beard, TED August 2021